Quantifying Risk: Beyond Qualitative Descriptions

Risks are traditionally approached through qualitative lenses—identified, assessed, and mitigated. Yet, the true value lies in quantifying certain risks, transforming how they are viewed and managed.

Probability and Impact: A Quantitative Perspective

Understanding the true scope of risks involves looking beyond qualitative assessments. Quantifying risks in terms of probability and impact offers a clearer, actionable perspective, enabling more effective risk management strategies.

Innovative Judgmental Methods

Leverage cutting-edge methods to quantify and manage risks with precision:

  • Italian Flag Method: This approach evaluates the likelihood of future risk events, providing a visual and analytical framework for probability assessment.
  • Range Assessment: Estimate the variability of critical variables, enabling a more nuanced understanding of risk exposure.
  • Analysis of Competing Hypotheses: Weigh multiple scenarios against each other to discern their relative importance, fostering a comprehensive view of potential futures.

Empowering Decision-Making

By adopting these methodologies, organizations can elevate their risk management strategies, moving from reactive to proactive stances. Quantitative risk assessment illuminates the path forward, offering a basis for robust, strategic decision-making.

The practical decision tools are really helpful. I was able to immediately apply the Italian Flag technique to help others quantify a key risk in an important decision. In the past we would have approached it more intuitively and suffered all the challenges of a subjective risk assessment. Using the simple tool helped us quantify the risk based on objective evidence. The result was clarity on the risk and stronger alignment among stakeholders.

Nancy Rhéaume, Enterprise Risk Management, Royal Canadian Mint, Canada

How to skill up

Virtual Learning Bite

Elevate your awareness with one of our engaging virtual learning bites. These concise, focused sessions are designed to deepen your understanding of key concepts in risk assessment and management.

  • Italian Flag Method: Dive into this virtual learning bite to explore how to determine the judgmental probability of a risk. This method offers a structured approach to evaluating the likelihood of potential outcomes, enriching your risk analysis toolkit.
  • Range Assessment: Unpack the nuances of variable assessment through this targeted session. Learn how to conduct a judgmental numeric evaluation of a variable, providing a foundation for more accurate and informed decision-making.

Online Course

Get to knowledge level understanding of risk quantification by doing an online course. This gives a broader perspective than standalone virtual learning bites. It takes about 10 hours.

Upskilling Program

Integrate risk quantification into your learning journey with our comprehensive upskilling program. This holistic approach allows you to seamlessly connect the dots between risk quantification techniques and a broader range of tools and concepts from decision analysis and risk management. By embedding these topics within a structured program, you gain a more interconnected understanding, enhancing your ability to apply these techniques effectively in real-world scenarios.


We partner closely with organizations to pinpoint critical improvement areas, crafting a bespoke program to meet those specific needs. Connect with us to explore how we can elevate your decision-making process together.

Contact Us

Email: info@claridec.com